Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 38.444612 41.945212 45.844233 50.556093 56.161962 62.706247 71.061259
2025-07-27 34.775511 39.644041 45.516734 53.311489 63.706008 77.627507 98.786296
2025-08-03 32.113219 37.614608 44.595861 54.468998 68.777221 90.168886 128.269142
2025-08-10 29.877550 35.674871 43.306586 54.629606 72.166535 100.993387 160.865524
2025-08-17 27.586682 33.354606 41.134069 53.059860 72.424341 106.621745 187.434055
2025-08-24 25.698060 31.375323 39.179919 51.462848 72.205125 111.198281 215.455061
2025-08-31 25.178490 31.201928 39.730065 53.722900 78.929779 131.803051 312.956372
2025-09-07 23.792975 29.691673 38.160766 52.340825 78.728991 137.420878 371.984210
2025-09-14 22.634406 28.423918 36.842108 51.201433 78.752270 143.653432 451.150541
2025-09-21 21.266202 26.773938 34.823831 48.660420 75.549687 140.479692 473.908470
2025-09-28 20.534245 26.012465 34.120245 48.320658 76.810959 150.136324 625.428480
2025-10-05 20.664621 26.522268 35.427367 51.678944 86.734577 192.282044 1786.467195
2025-10-12 19.672495 25.427733 34.306073 50.885143 88.187746 212.348001 5946.317115
2025-10-19 19.383504 25.404440 34.966847 53.680105 99.763670 295.360193 NaN
2025-10-26 18.844544 24.941010 34.826618 54.851306 107.763697 389.072896 NaN
2025-11-02 18.206672 24.270200 34.254587 55.013853 113.013168 493.181470 NaN
2025-11-09 17.379334 23.242701 32.965296 53.425360 112.126694 542.670268 NaN
2025-11-16 16.620850 22.286267 31.733629 51.809679 110.684735 588.101475 NaN
2025-11-23 16.450983 22.275928 32.198900 54.096270 124.219513 1064.032743 NaN
2025-11-30 15.824604 21.476520 31.152806 52.697868 123.209449 1232.170185 NaN
2025-12-07 15.274296 20.778891 30.252203 51.545247 122.873655 1487.174701 NaN
2025-12-14 14.586317 19.825120 28.823175 48.975485 115.883729 1299.227905 NaN
2025-12-21 14.209629 19.378799 28.323859 48.631960 118.394507 1831.345792 NaN